Summary of Analyizing the Conjunction Fallacy As a Fact, by Tomas Veloz et al.
Analyizing the Conjunction Fallacy as a Fact
by Tomas Veloz, Olha Sobetska
First submitted to arxiv on: 21 Feb 2024
Categories
- Main: Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
- Secondary: Probability (math.PR); Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems (nlin.AO)
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| Summary difficulty | Written by | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| High | Paper authors | High Difficulty Summary Read the original abstract here |
| Medium | GrooveSquid.com (original content) | Medium Difficulty Summary The paper challenges conventional wisdom on the conjunction fallacy, a phenomenon first studied by Tversky and Kahneman. Rather than exploring its underlying causes or psychological explanations, this study takes an unconventional approach by examining the range of factual possibilities (extensional definition) that may be driving the fallacy. Using a sample of experiments from 1983 to 2016, the researchers show that previous studies have focused on a narrow subset of these possibilities, leading to biased explanations for the phenomenon. |
| Low | GrooveSquid.com (original content) | Low Difficulty Summary The conjunction fallacy is a puzzle in decision-making where people tend to think an unlikely event is more likely when combined with another unlikely event. This study looks at how scientists have studied this problem and finds that they’ve only looked at part of what’s possible. It means their ideas about why it happens might not be entirely right. |
